09/08/2023 Stunning Ranges in Trade Estimates for Ending Stocks in Sept. WASDE

On the Grains: Grains are steady to mixed in overnight trade after yesterday’s latest Drought Monitor map showed drought conditions continue to spread and worsen over much of the country. The holiday-delayed weekly export sales will be out at 7:30 and could well set the tone for early trading. The range of estimates are as follows: Corn, 400K to 1 million tonnes, soybeans 1.4 to 2 million tonnes, wheat 250-600 thousand tonnes. The dominant factor will be continued “positioning” for Tuesday’s September crop reports and WASDE updates. The balance sheets for the 2022-23 crop year will have only minor changes. The trade focus will be on the new crop outlook. These are the averages and ranges for key metrics in the 2023-24 season that will move the markets. Let’s look at trade yield estimates first for potential changes to the supply side of USDA’s new balance sheets: CORN – Avg. yield 173.4 bpa compared to 175.1 in August and 173.3 bpa last year. The estimates range from as low as 171 to as high as 175 bpa. We’ve made the case in recent days for expecting the number to be closer to the lower end of that range but we…