08/31/23 Keep Betting Against Inflation

As interest rates have climbed at a record rate of trajectory propelled by the Fed, we have been anticipating that at some point the impact would show up in weakening assets values. Yet both home and farmland values have remained doggedly inflated resisting pressure despite the abrupt change in the cost of money. Our neighborhood realtor says that it finally caught up to our house market. He says that the expensive home values on the lake’s shore-line, $1.5 million or so, have remaining strong as those buyers are not borrowing money. CD interest now competes for cash however and mortgage or no, the value of cash will factor into home values eventually. It has just taken some time. He also said that a reduced number of listings also served to support values. With one sale pending, there is nothing else for sale here in our enclave. He now sees a change taking place in the more average price home transactions where the buyers are younger folks with families who require a mortgage. He says that they hung in there up to 6.5% but when the mortgage rate recently surged further to 7.25%, that phycology of these buyers broke and sellers…