05/24/2023 Which Analog Year Is It…. 2012 or 2013?

PLEASE REFER TO THE HEDGE AND TRADE STRATEGY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! The trade would have you believe that because of the developing El Nino that yields will surge in the oncoming crop season. During the recent La Nina, the US has had consecutive below trendline yields for corn that USDA says will recover to trendline or higher this season (181.5). Recent drought years concentrated on the WCB and plains states while the ECB generally produced well. End-users have been shipping corn from the ECB to the plain’s region via the basis. The El Nino could flip this pattern so that the WCB out produces the ECB. First off, it begs the question which analog year we are following… 2012 or 2013? The PDO cold water condition off California currently resembles 2012 more. That brought a major drought to the corn-belt. 2013 was the recovery year which the bears have been assuming matches 2023. The USDA has committed to an EL Nino record yield which they have been factoring into the futures market. Nothing is ever as sure as the trade being wrong when having become too sure of something. Trade winds have shifted from west to east and equatorial Pacific…