05/22/23 40,000 Foot View of CBOT Markets-Take Four

One of the reasons that I gave for selling all of my 2022 old crop cash corn last December was that technicals had turned impulsive to the downside. Short crop/long tail also appeared to be in play. I had no faith in their being a spring rally. There were rounding tops in both corn and soybeans and downside momentum progressively picked up as charts rolled over. I have been tracking where I think that these markets are at in the progressive wave counts on the generic Elliot Wave pattern chart below. Note that we have been in the 3rd wave subdivision of the wave-C decline. 3rd waves are typically the most powerful and can display elevator shaft-like price losses while technical oversold readings become temporarily irrelevant. There is little question that we were in a 3rd wave decline with only how much of it, if any, is left to be determined. CBOT markets are essentially deflating which the Fed wants them to do. Things will eventually get cheaper again.   Looking at the larger weekly wave count, the high in July corn was set in May of 2022 at 760 with an A wave decline bottoming at 574 the following…