03/10/23 Grains Weak Again As “Storm Clouds” Define the Macro-Environment

On the Grains: Overnight markets are weaker again. One of the most time-honored axioms in trading is to beware markets that cannot move higher on bullish news. We’re witnessing a classic example of that in the grains since Tuesday’s WASDE showed far greater cuts in Argentina’s corn and soybean crops than the average trade estimates, followed Wednesday by the Rosario Grain Exchange pegging crops far lower still.   Then yesterday before markets even opened Brazil’s CONAB dropped the Brazilian crop to 151 MMT, 2 million lower than USDA’s figure and not far from Matthew’s estimate of only 150 MMT in this week’s Brazilian Operations Update. It was followed by weekly corn export sales of 1.41 MMT that blew the lid off expectations that ranged from 600k to 1.2 million. Didn’t matter. Corn tumbled anyway. It got caught in the downdraft of a horrendous net decline in weekly soybean sales (due to cancellations) of 23,000 tonnes against expectations for new net sales ranging from 200K to 700,000 tonnes.   What the heck is going on? The macro environment for both the U.S. and global economy is looking grimmer and grimmer and it’s feeding the bears in commodities. Stocks are down again…