03/08/23 March USDA WASDE Report

USDA boosted the corn carryover by 75 mln bushels, about twice the increase expected in posted pre-report estimates. The entire amount came from a decline in expected exports. That should come close now to settling exports as lower prices should soon begin to bring them back some. China is waiting in the wings for a new crop corn buying opportunity. There is some reason for demand concern yet from the feeding and ethanol sectors. Between beef herd liquidation, poor pork demand and bird flu, the feeding sector has contracted. That means that there will be more corn in export channels that can instead be shipped west to ethanol plants and feedlots. Crude oil doesn’t appear to be as bullish as many expected which rains on the ethanol parade. USDA left Brazilian corn production unchanged at 125 mmts but lowered Argentine production from 47 to 41 mmts, matching the lowest pre-report trade estimate. Despite the Argentine corn production reduction, USDA actually increased projected world corn ending stock from 295.3 to 296.5 mmts. Go figure. Next up will be the planting intentions report and the trade expects more acres and given the fading la Nina, higher yields this season. I have been…